Tourism demand and militarisation: insights from panel kink regression across leading destinations

This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between militarisation and international tourism demand in the world's ten most visited destinations between 1995 and 2024. Using a panel kink regression (PKR) framework and the Global Militarisation Index (GMI), we identify threshold effects and asymmetric slope responses that standard linear models overlook. Our findings show that below the estimated threshold, militarisation has a negligible effect on tourist arrivals; above it, the association turns negative and statistically significant, though the arrivals result is suggestive of asymmetry rather than a confirmed kink. The expenditure robustness check provides stronger evidence, with both standard and bootstrapped F-tests confirming the threshold. These findings highlight the importance of balancing security measures with destination attractiveness to sustain tourism-driven growth.