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COTECHMO: The Constructive Technology Development Cost Model

  • Mark B. Jones
    ,
  • Phil F. Webb
    ,
  • Mark D. Summers
    ,
  • Paul Baguley
Research Output: Contribution to journal Article Peer-review

Abstract

Adetailedanalysisoftheavailableliteratureandtheaerospacemanufacturingindustryhasidentified a lack of cost estimation techniques to forecast advanced manufacturing technology development effort and hardware cost. To respond, this article presents two parametric ‘Constructive Technology Development Cost Models’ (COTECHMO). The COTECHMO Resources model is the first and is capable of forecasting aerospace advanced manufacturing technology development effort in personhours. When statistically analyzed, this model had an outstanding R-squared value of 98% and a high F-value of 106.65, validating model significance. The general model accuracy was tested with 53% of the forecast data falling within 20% of the actual. The second, the COTECHMO Direct Cost model is capable of forecasting the development cost of the aerospace advanced manufacturing technology process hardware. This model had an inferior R-squared value of 76% and an F-value of 5.59, although each was still valid to determine model significance. However, the Direct Cost model accuracy exceeded the Resources model, with 93% of the forecast data falling within 20% of the actual. The article concludes with recommendations for future research, including suggestions for further enhancement of each model verification and validation, within and outside of the supporting organization.

Publication Information

Output type

Research Output: Contribution to journal Article Peer-review

Original language

English

Pages from-to (Number of pages)

Pages 48-69

Journal (Volume, Issue Number)

Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics (Volume 7, Issue 1)

Publication milestones

  • Published - 03/04/2014

Publication status

Published - 03/04/2014

ISSN

1941-658X

External Publication IDs

  • handle.net: 10547/623956

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