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The climatic challenge: which plants will people use in the next century?

  • J.S. Borrell
    ,
  • Steven Dodsworth
    ,
  • Felix Forest
    ,
  • Oscar Alejandro Pérez-Escobar
    ,
  • M.A. Lee
    ,
  • E. Mattana
Research Output: Contribution to journal Article Peer-review

Open access

Sustainable Development Goals

  • SDG 2 - Zero Hunger
    SDG 2 Zero Hunger
  • SDG 13 - Climate Action
    SDG 13 Climate Action

Abstract

More than 31,000 useful plant species have been documented to fulfil needs and services for humans or the animals and environment we depend on. Despite this diversity, humans currently satisfy most requirements with surprisingly few plant species; for example, just three crops – rice, wheat and maize – comprise more than 50% of plant derived calories. Here, we synthesize the projected impact of global climatic change on useful plants across the spectrum of plant domestication. We illustrate the demographic, spatial, ecophysiological, chemical, functional, evolutionary and cultural traits that are likely to characterise useful plants and their resilience in the next century. Using this framework, we consider a range of possible pathways for future human use of plants. These are centred on two trade-offs: i) diversification versus specialization in the range of species we utilize, and ii) substitutionof the species towards those better suited to future climate versus facilitating adaptation in our existing suite of dominant useful plants. In the coming century, major challenges to agriculture and biodiversity will be dominated by increased climatic variation, shifting species ranges, disruption to biotic interactions, nutrient limitation and emerging pests and pathogens. These challenges must be mitigated, whilst enhancing sustainable production to meet the needs of a growing population and a more resource intensive standard of living. With the continued erosion of biodiversity, our future ability to choose among these pathways and trade-offs is likely to be diminished.

Publication Information

Output type

Research Output: Contribution to journal Article Peer-review

Original language

English

Pages from-to (Number of pages)

Pages 103872

Journal (Volume, Issue Number)

Environmental and Experimental Botany (Volume 170)

Publication milestones

  • Accepted/In press - 26/08/2019
  • Published - 30/08/2019

Publication status

Published - 30/08/2019

ISSN

0098-8472

External Publication IDs

  • handle.net: 10547/623442
  • Scopus: 85072217367

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