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Half of Atlantic reef-building corals at elevated risk of extinction due to climate change and other threats

  • Luis Gutierrez
    ,
  • Beth Polidoro
    ,
  • David Obura
    ,
  • Francoise Cabada-Blanco
    ,
  • Christi Linardich
    ,
  • Emma Pettersson
  • Arizona State University
    ,
  • International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
    ,
  • Coastal Oceans Research and Development in the Indian Ocean
    ,
  • University of Portsmouth
    ,
  • Old Dominion University
    ,
  • Zoological Society of London Institute of Zoology
Research Output:
Contribution to journal
Article
 Peer-review

Open access

Sustainable Development Goals

  • SDG 13 - Climate Action
    SDG 13 Climate Action
  • SDG 14 - Life Below Water
    SDG 14 Life Below Water

Abstract

Atlantic reef-building corals and coral reefs continue to experience extensive decline due to increased stressors related to climate change, disease, pollution, and numerous anthropogenic threats. To understand the impact of ocean warming and reef loss on the estimated extinction risk of shallow water Atlantic reef-building scleractinians and milleporids, all 85 valid species were reassessed under the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, updating the previous Red List assessment of Atlantic corals published in 2008. For the present assessment, individual species declines were estimated based on the modeled coral cover loss (1989–2019) and projected onset of annual severe bleaching events (2020–2050) across the Atlantic. Species traits were used to scale species’ relative vulnerability to the modeled cover declines and forecasted bleaching events. The updated assessments place 45.88%–54.12% of Atlantic shallow water corals at an elevated extinction risk compared to the previous assessments conducted in 2008 (15.19%–40.51%). However, coral cover loss estimates indicate an improvement in reef coverage compared to the historic time-series used for the 2008 assessments. Based on this, we infer that, although remaining dangerously high, the rate of Atlantic reef coral cover decline has surprisingly slowed in recent decades. However, based on modeled projections of sea-surface temperature that predict the onset of annual severe bleaching events within the next 30 years, we listed 26 (out of 85) species as Critically Endangered in the IUCN Red List. Each of these species had previously been listed under a lower threatened category and this result alone highlights the severe threat future bleaching events pose to coral survival and the reef ecosystems they support.

Publication Information

Output type

Research Output:
Contribution to journal
Article
 Peer-review

Original language

English

Article number

e0309354

Journal (Volume, Issue Number)

PLoS ONE (Volume 19, Issue 11 November)

Publication milestones

  • Accepted/In press - 09/08/2024
  • Published - 15/11/2024

Publication status

Published - 15/11/2024

Publication IDs

  • handle.net: 10547/626516
  • Scopus: 85209705487
  • PubMed: 39546544

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