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Construction risk modelling and assessment: insights from a literature review

  • Abdulmaten Taroun
    ,
  • J.B. Yang
    ,
  • D. Lowe
Research Output: Contribution to journal Article Peer-review

Open access

Abstract

Although risk assessment is probably the most difficult component of the Risk Management process, it is potentially the most useful. A critical review of the literature published on the topic over the last 27 years has revealed significant results, summarized as follows. Variants of Probability-Impact modeling are predominant; while traditionally the focus was on objective probability gradually subjective probability has become dominant. Risk analysis of project duration or cost is prevalent; the analysis of project performance risk is hardly mentioned in literature. Further, no risk assessment approach was discovered that deploys a common scale to simultaneously assess the alternative impacts of a risk on the various project objectives. Most of the existing approaches provide a risk rating; very few actually quantify risk. The limitations of the existing theories and tools indicate the need for improved alternatives. We conclude that the use of ‘risk cost’ as a common scale within a belief-based decision making framework would be an innovative solution, overcoming current shortcomings and generally improving construction risk assessment.

Publication Information

Output type

Research Output: Contribution to journal Article Peer-review

Original language

English

Journal (Volume, Issue Number)

The Built and Human Environment Review (Volume 4, Issue 1)

Publication milestones

  • Published - 01/01/2011

Publication status

Published - 01/01/2011

External Publication IDs

  • handle.net: 10547/251154

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Final published version, 70.91 KB

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