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Bayesian learning of models for estimating uncertainty in alert systems: application to air traffic conflict avoidance

Research Output: Contribution to journal Article Peer-review

Open access

Abstract

Alert systems detect critical events which can happen in the short term. Uncertainties in data and in the models used for detection cause alert errors. In the case of air traffic control systems such as Short-Term Conflict Alert (STCA), uncertainty increases errors in alerts of separation loss. Statistical methods that are based on analytical assumptions can provide biased estimates of uncertainties. More accurate analysis can be achieved by using Bayesian Model Averaging, which provides estimates of the posterior probability distribution of a prediction. We propose a new approach to estimate the prediction uncertainty, which is based on observations that the uncertainty can be quantified by variance of predicted outcomes. In our approach, predictions for which variances of posterior probabilities are above a given threshold are assigned to be uncertain. To verify our approach we calculate a probability of alert based on the extrapolation of closest point of approach. Using Heathrow airport flight data we found that alerts are often generated under different conditions, variations in which lead to alert detection errors. Achieving 82.1% accuracy of modelling the STCA system, which is a necessary condition for evaluating the uncertainty in prediction, we found that the proposed method is capable of reducing the uncertain component. Comparison with a bootstrap aggregation method has demonstrated a significant reduction of uncertainty in predictions. Realistic estimates of uncertainties will open up new approaches to improving the performance of alert systems.

Publication Information

Output type

Research Output: Contribution to journal Article Peer-review

Original language

English

Pages from-to (Number of pages)

Pages 229-245

Journal (Volume, Issue Number)

Integrated Computer-Aided Engineering (Volume 25, Issue 3)

Publication milestones

  • Published - 17/05/2018

Publication status

Published - 17/05/2018

ISSN

1069-2509

External Publication IDs

  • handle.net: 10547/622537
  • Scopus: 85047459235

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