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A framework for assessing threats and benefits to species responding to climate change

  • Chris D. Thomas
    ,
  • Jane K. Hill
    ,
  • Barbara J. Anderson
    ,
  • Sallie Bailey
    ,
  • Colin M. Beale
    ,
  • Richard B. Bradbury
  • University of York
    ,
  • Forestry Commission
    ,
  • Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
    ,
  • Butterfly Conservation
    ,
  • Natural England
    ,
  • University of Leeds
Research Output: Contribution to journal Article Peer-review

Sustainable Development Goals

  • SDG 13 - Climate Action
    SDG 13 Climate Action

Abstract

Current national and international frameworks for assessing threats to species have not been developed in the context of climate change, and are not framed in a way that recognises new opportunities that arise from climate change. The framework presented here separates the threats and benefits of climate change for individual species. Threat is assessed by the level of climate-related decline within a species’ recently occupied (e.g. pre-1970s) historical distribution, based on observed (e.g. repeat census) and/or projected changes (e.g. modelled bioclimate space). Benefits are assessed in terms of observed and/or projected increases outside the recently occupied historical range. Exacerbating factors (e.g. small population size, low dispersal capacity) that might increase levels of threat or limit expansion in response to climate change are taken into consideration within the framework. Protocols are also used to identify levels of confidence (and hence research and/or monitoring needs) in each species’ assessment.

Publication Information

Output type

Research Output: Contribution to journal Article Peer-review

Original language

English

Pages from-to (Number of pages)

Pages 125-142

Journal (Volume, Issue Number)

Methods in Ecology and Evolution (Volume 2, Issue 2)

Publication milestones

  • Published - 01/04/2011

Publication status

Published - 01/04/2011

External Publication IDs

  • handle.net: 10547/301909
  • Scopus: 79954764036

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