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A DST-based approach for construction project risk analysis

  • Abdulmaten Taroun
    ,
  • J.B. Yang
Research Output: Contribution to journal Article Peer-review

Abstract

Despite its huge potential in risk analysis, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) has not received enough attention in construction management. This paper presents a DST-based approach for structuring personal experience and professional judgment when assessing construction project risk. DST was innovatively used to tackle the problem of lacking sufficient information through enabling analysts to provide incomplete assessments. Risk cost is used as a common scale for measuring risk impact on the various project objectives, and the Evidential Reasoning algorithm is suggested as a novel alternative for aggregating individual assessments. A spreadsheet-based decision support system (DSS) was devised to facilitate the proposed approach. Four case studies were conducted to examine the approach's viability. Senior managers in four British construction companies tried the DSS and gave very promising feedback. The paper concludes that the proposed methodology may contribute to bridging the gap between theory and practice of construction risk assessment.

Publication Information

Output type

Research Output: Contribution to journal Article Peer-review

Original language

English

Pages from-to (Number of pages)

Pages 1221-123

Journal (Volume, Issue Number)

Journal of the Operational Research Society (Volume 64, Issue 8)

Publication milestones

  • Published - 03/04/2013

Publication status

Published - 03/04/2013

ISSN

0160-5682

External Publication IDs

  • handle.net: 10547/593714
  • Scopus: 84879646522

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