Nonlinear dynamics of militarization and income inequality nexus in post-socialist Eastern Europe: a panel kink regression analysis (1990-2023)

This paper examines the relationship between militarization, and income inequality in Eastern Bloc European countries from 1990 to 2023 – a period marked by post-socialist transition, economic upheaval, and political instability. The region’s unique geopolitical position and complex socio-political structure have contributed to widening socioeconomic disparities and rising militarization. Using a panel kink regression (PKR) model with the Global Militarisation Index and GINI index, we identify a critical threshold beyond which militarisation’s effect on inequality reverses. Below this point, militarization modestly reduces inequality; above it, further increases worsen disparities. These findings underline the need for balanced policies that promote both security and social equity in the region.