Impact of recent and anticipated change in oil price on global logistics and supply chain activities - a survey of practitioner and educator opinions

Purpose: This research investigated the views of logistics and supply chain (SC) managers, and also those of educators teaching these disciplines, of the impact of the recent fall in oil price, and also anticipated future oil prices, on global logistics and SC activities. In terms of future prices, this work has sought to understand how these professionals see the oil price as evolving in the near term (3-years) and medium term (10-years), and hence understand the impacts they foresee for logistics and SC activities. Research Approach: The research is empirical, with semi-structured questionnaires being handed out and collected at a recent industry logistic and supply chain event in the UK, at a corresponding conference in the UK, and likewise at an international conference in the US. This approach ensured that only the target audience - middle and senior managers in companies, and lecturers and above in universities - were surveyed, and that a high response rate was achieved. The questionnaire was kept short and anonymous to assist this high take-up rate. A total of 31 valid questionnaires were returned, and these were analysed using both qualitative and quantitative (SPSS) methods. Findings and Originality: This research is recent and original. One key and perhaps surprising finding is that about half of respondents thought that the recent fall in oil price had had no significant impact on logistics and supply chain activities, while the other half thought there had been an impact, classing this as ‘medium’, and identifying the nature of these impacts. A second key finding was the very wide range of expectations, from both managers and educators, of the future price of oil; with estimates for the expected oil price 10 years hence ranging from below $30/bbl to over $120/bbl. Research and Practical Impacts: The survey showed that the risk of a significant medium-term constraint to global oil supply, sufficient to raise the oil price to above $90/bbl, was thought unlikely by nearly two-thirds of those that responded to the questionnaire. In terms of research impact, it is hoped that this paper will help raise awareness of this future price risk, both for practitioners within the logistics and SC industry, and for those that teach these topics within academia.